Image Source: ANI
It was not a nail-biting finish. Rather a photo finish for Donald J Trump who is poised to become the 47thPresident of United States of America, and handsomely.
Though the result may be shocking to many, it’s actually not all that surprising. Trump was the underdog this election season. Burdened with indictments, convictions, and relentless criticism from all sides—ridiculed by the intellectual elite and feared for his actions on January 6th—Trump entered the race as the villain.
In contrast, Kamala Harris, as soon as she took over from Joe Biden became the hype, the noise, the shor, the clamour. She was the fresh breath of youthful energy that Biden and Trump seemed to lack. Her story—her rise as a woman of color to the vice presidency—was spun into a narrative that made many, including us, feel proud and emotional. She was positioned as the modern day Sita standing robustly with gears on to take on Ravan. The media eagerly latched onto the narrative, framing Harris as a beacon of hope and change. Opinion polls too catched on the hype. They followed the hype, sniffed a change in mood; they saw the enthusiasm back, particularly among the Democrats and overtly overruled the undercurrent. Harris started leading all polls, and we boorishly started believing the polls. But we should have known better. We’ve seen this playbook before. Polls and surveys can create a false sense of certainty, often misreading the mood of the nation. We saw this in India, where pollsters were embarrassingly off in predicting the election results. Now, we’re seeing it again in the U.S. That’s the thing with surveys and opinion polls. They seem to read a mood in one state which is favourable to the hype and they err in the same way in other parts. Instead of reading the pulse everywhere, a generic mood becomes the nation’s mood. In America Kamala Harris became the mood.
In days leading to vote, opinion polls categorically pointed the momentum favouring Kamala Harris, while Trump was shown tired and frustrated with his campaign. Trump was seen fumbling and flustered in debates against Harris, his rallies felt dull in comparison to glittery Harris rallies.
But Trump had something that wasn’t the polls failed to gauge into: he had the pulse of the electorate. In over 900 rallies, Trump relentlessly hammered on key issues like immigration, the economy, and America’s role in the world. His words resonated with voters. And the result speaks. Trump has become the first Republican to win Miami-Dade County in Florida, a heavily Hispanic area, since 1988.
So how did Trump manage to pull such a handsome win despite the odds not favouring him. One reason could be the growing resentment among immigrant communities who felt threatened by a new wave of migrants
For many second-generation Americans, including many Indian-Americans, who had worked hard to establish themselves, see the influx of new migrants being given place in the American ecosystem because their plight is humanitarian. Who would you then pick. Trump, the man who speaks to your concerns, or Harris, who embodies the immigrant narrative?
The results were clear.
Harris struck the chord with the generation who grew up in America being American, like herself. But she failed to seep into the minds and conscience of the Americans who came with her mother and father. Resultant Trump won handsomely. He grew support from both urban and rural voters at levels notably higher than in his contest against Joe Biden in 2020. He gained inroads among the non-whites including Latinos and black male voters and more surprisingly even among the Hispanics. Kamala Harris’s most disappointing results came from Texas, a state dominated by Hispanic voters. It is evident thus that Trump may even win the popular vote. In addition, expectations that women would turn out in sufficiently large numbers to elect the first female president never materialized in the way pundits expected.
In days to come a lot will be written on why Kamala lost. There will be op-eds blaming Joe Biden for waiting too long to step down, and podcasts on Democrats losing their mojo. But let’s face it, America was never ready for a woman President, less likely a woman of colour.
And as the election year draws to a close, one thing is abundantly clear: the pollsters and psephologists need to take time off. They need to step back, go on a vacation and reflect, and recognize the times we live in. We are in the age of populism, where emotions run high, where moods can shift in an instant, where old perceptions have been upended. A Black man is voting for a Trump Republican just as a Dalit votes for Modi’s BJP.
As for democracy, it may be under threat, but the façade is still intact. As seen in India and now in America, despite deep polarization, populist leaders are still claiming majorities. For till the time Trump and Modi have a hold on the janta ka nabz, and continue to speak their mind, the likes of Kamala Harris and Rahul Gandhi gaining a win is unlikely. For the mood from East to West is dominated by populist politics. Period.
